Toby: German Air

Another conversation between Jeremy and his globe-strewn friends. This time it's Toby, a German he met in Singapore during  time as a technology journalist with Reuters. A former concert pianist, Toby doesn't fit your idea of a startup founder, which is perhaps why he makes for more interesting company. But how is the lockdown affecting his battling business? Jeremy tracks him down to his mother's home in the German forests, where he has some surprising insights -- and predictions about Life in A Pandemic.

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Email us at pandemic@cleftstick.com. Life in a Pandemic is produced by Jeremy Wagstaff and Sari Sudarsono for CleftStick.com. 

Transcript

Jeremy:   0:00
Hi. My name is Jeremy Wagstaff. You are listening to Living in a Pandemic.  

Jeremy:   0:06
It's April the 9th 2020 and there are 1,048,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19. 87,870 people have died.

Toby:   0:18
Can you hear me? How are you?

Jeremy:   0:20
Yeah. I'm good, and you?

Jeremy:   0:22
This is Toby, a German friend I made in Singapore during my time as a technology journalist with Reuters. He was honest and wanting me to write about his company. But most of the time, we would visit tech exhibitions and trade shows together and try to get our heads around new technologies. Many of those ended up being stories like the one about digital noses. You'll have to Google that one. Toby has continued to build his company. Forever, traveling to put out fires and seek investors. So when I caught up with him, I expected him to be frustrated at being locked down. Shows how much I know him.

Toby:   1:01
I'm good to...

Jeremy:   1:01
Where are you?   

Toby:   1:03
Germany.  

Jeremy:   1:04
How did you get from Singapore to Germany? I thought everything had been kind of locked down.

Toby:   1:08
Yes. So what happened is we were in Singapore, and we were in India, at a time when probably a lot of people already had COVID there went back to Singapore, and then we went to Dubai. And the idea was to go right back to Singapore. Margarette's mother, my wife's mother she had her birthday and we wanted to surprise her. So we flew to Germany just thought, we'll be there a few days and this is when the lock down happened. So we got kind of stuck here. But it's not the worst place to be in this time to be honest. I probably have not been as long in one place in the past three weeks or so in a long time. Usually it's like two weeks in a place max and a lot of travel in between.

Jeremy:   1:56
Mmm, and the photo you sent me looks like kind of quite nice weather there.

Toby:   2:01
Yeah, it's beautiful. Look, it's... I wouldn't call it early summer, but I mean, it's early 20 or 20 degrees or so, and in Germany you can still go for a walk. So it's not like a complete curfew where you only can go out to buy food. As long as you behave responsibly, you can you can go biking or jogging or walking. It's it's okay now.

Jeremy:   2:26
You are an entrepreneur and you've built a number of companies. And you're always very frank with me about the kind of problems behind the scenes, which is very interesting. But you're also a concert pianist. You're also interested in, you got a piece of metal or an element stuck to your phone to kind of keep or ward away evil spirits. Maybe I have not explained that right.  But basically, your interest isn't confined to tech and startups and angel investing and what were the next round is coming from. So, all that said I was sort of thought that your experience might be interesting too given that you've been traveling around a lot. You're in Germany. And I realized it's kind of hard here because people aren't actually moving around so they're just getting a lot of this journey is internal. But I was kind of wondering where your head is at the moment. Are you kind of just seeing this as a holiday, as a chance to catch up on e mails? Or is there is there another kind of aspect to it that you're finding at this stage in the process?

Toby:   3:34
So this is a super question. Of course, it's more than one. And it depends, you know, whether I answer very, very personally or whether I would rather go into into my business. And so I think whatever I'm saying now is under the, under the assumption that, that none of my close family, friends, circle is sick and suffering with this disease or or, God forbid, even dying from it, yeah? So, which is currently not the case. So, having said this, to me, this is the most exciting time to be alive. No incident like this has ever happened that affected the world like this. Not even in an asteroid or, you know, you know, in any, any climate change, fear, not even a world war managed to create a situation in which, in which government could, could basically tell its people "you stay at home" and people actually for most of it are doing it worldwide. That, that creates a situation for the very first time where, no matter what's your race, your age, where you're brought up, where you are right now, you're all in the same boat at home. Hopefully, more or less. So this. I think, going forward is the most pivotal moment of the planet's history because we never had, though we're all having the same organs. We certainly never had the same type of cultural mindshare as the world has right now. This is going to redefine the culture on Earth as we know it, not the culture in the country. But how people are experiencing this, this aspect is, is certainly driven by the existing culture in certain geographies. For me personally, this has been a most creative time. I think I'd like to think this of this time as being like a Phoenix that is coming out of the ashes, before it happens. And I'm saying this because either you are extremely successful company that will have to fight very hard through this time to remain and be relevant and come out of these ashes of this situation after that. Because you have a lot to lose, or you're on the other side of the spectrum. You might have nothing. But this crisis provides your with, but it puts you in the same boat as everyone else and therefore provides you with the opportunity again to rise out of this ashes, which is where you what you were anyway on top. So I'd like to think of this as a huge opportunity because everyone is in the same boat. I noticed this when, when people approach me in the last six weeks. I'm talking about it from a professional point of view now and suddenly the fact that I can't see them in person, it simply doesn't matter anymore. In the past, if I didn't meet them in person, there's a, "Oh Tobby if you want to have something with me, come here". But you know, we are in a global business. I can't be everywhere at the same time. I realized that a lot of people are literally enjoying maybe their lives and their work a little bit too much because they're taking your time, they're sitting down with you, and then later nothing happens. Now I'm realizing that only the people are calling me and having, you know, go to meetings with me who really have a genuine interest in in working together. They're not wasting my time and, and the distance in one way has made us, made us execute much better and closer together. So, and my team always has anyway, being remote and executing successfully in a remote team. So from a from a professional point of view, there's no change except that our clients, partners, investors and so on suddenly accept that fact. So that's that... I think we would, I would say we've been extremely creative. We have more inquiries, both from investors. And, you know, I I have my own, you know, stories with investors from investors as well as from clients. We have many more inquiries in the last six weeks than we had in the last six months, which is quite incredible. 

Jeremy:   7:58
What do you put the interest down to? Is it just that they're sitting on their hands and actually can't waste time and actually got to get on and build some business, inducing business, and this is, uh, low hanging fruit for them?

Toby:   8:11
I think, Yeah. That certainly comes as one aspect. I think there are some factors and they really like, like facts that are only coming into play now. They're only seen now, like one factor would be is this actually a viable business? Do I invest in this because 30 other people invested it? Or is this actually a viable business? People suddenly take the time to look at it seriously. Many times they don't. If I'm selling something to a client, that client is now evaluating me based on merit, not who I know, you know, because they all they have time. They're sitting at home. What are they doing? Yeah? Like now, I give your best example is Easter? It's Easter holidays. I can tell you I could reach any investor over the Easter holidays if I want to do. You try this any year before this event. It is not possible, because they want to have their, they will have some time with family or that they will be on a boat, or going somewhere hiking or whatever. You can't reach them. It is dedicated to the holiday. Holiday now for everyone is home. What to do? So, you know, I think this sort of it's leveling the playing field and those who really have something to show for, they will come out of it on top. That is what I'm noticing. So you know what you really have to show for merit and and quality and execution. It's not who you know, how many beers to drink with each other. It's actually, you know, what you really stand for that merits.

Jeremy:   9:46
But I know you're just putting a positive spin on this for the sake of an interview or you genuinely feel that there is a kind of shift here taking place, where dispersed companies, nimble companies that have been kind of pushed to the edges a little bit because size matters and the elephants sort of trampling the grass. Those elephants now are struggling themselves because they're not equipped to work within, in these dispersed environments. And some of these fences between companies, the natural natural deterrence to smaller players that are gaining the necessary foothold to seriously disrupt industries. Do you genuinely think that's happening? Or is this just a sales pitch you dreamt up in five minutes until you get ready for the call?

Toby:   10:35
First of all, you're right. I mean, I'm not saying that in any way. It's not hard. I mean, it's it's it's terribly hard. It still is. Don't get me wrong. But I see, um, I would say it's a different ground, you know, where leveling the playing field is what makes this different. It's it's just not the same playing field if you you compete, for example, I personally I as you know, I have taken investments from high net worth individuals, family offices, etcetera. But I've not taken any investment from venture capital and financial investors as you know it, yeah, for the time being, because, generally speaking, many of them have very short, not all, but many of them have a shorter and few. Which is one of my pain points, of course, because when you compete, let's say, there's another startup who has just raised $20 million in in venture capital but it was far from being on track to become profitable or having, having the revenues that support the  growth, organically, etcetera. It's very hard to compete with their fancy office. You know, the many people that they can employ, the perks they can give, give to all the employees. But this is all to me, this is all child's play. It doesn't really, genuinely mean that you're going to succeed. It looks like you do. But in reality, I mean, it doesn't really say anything about your business 5, 10, or 20 years from now. What I like about this situation and I'm not saying this because I want to sound too positive. I'm glad you said, look, it's hard. People still copy as we don't know how how things will play out. That's all there. But the playing field is leveled. And it's for the first time, I feel it's a fair chance and that is a different, that's a different place to operate out from. I mean, if if the CEO from you know a company that has 400,000 employees and the CEO of a company that has four employees, is working from from the living room, that tells you everything, yeah.

Jeremy:   12:55
And I think the point that you make about this idea that suddenly everybody's is reachable is fascinating. The playing field requires everybody to get their Web cam working and Zoom accounts set up, or Skype or whatever they are using. The problem is that traditionally that you can, you can work from home and I've set up a couple of companies for myself and a much smaller scale than yours. But having a glossy website and name cards and a decent home office still doesn't get you past the secretary. That still doesn't get you past the security guards or whatever in terms of clawing your way to the, to anywhere near the top table. In terms of business, it's still those connections.

Toby:   13:44
The one thing I realized is that all the work that I put in into building this many top level relationships or any relationship for that matter, not forget the level. Just remove this. What I'm saying is any authentic relationships that I try to build, and I looked at all the business card like, believe this or not, 3,000 business cards are collected in the past few years. 3,000 business cards. That means I've met these people in person. Imagine. So what I'm doing now is I'm not trying to chase them necessarily by sending a new Linkedin Connect. But I'm just looking at the card, then I'm like going card, dropping them an email and say, "look, we met then and there, I'd love to catch up with you" and because you had that previous physical meeting or, you know, a real life connection. It makes it so much easier to share a Zoom call. People, In fact, they're quite happy if it's not purely digital base now. But if they can reconnect with this with folks that they met, you know, maybe even five or 10 or 20 years back, even if now they can only do a virtual calls or meetings. But if you ever had a physical interaction with someone in person conversation, it's a much easier way to do that,

Jeremy:   15:09
Right? Right. I guess this brings me to the sort of other part of this is. Obviously the conversation has gone in a different direction to the one I imagine, but actually, it's a very interesting one. This is an interesting way to go, but this sort of question always comes up. How many of these things that we're talking about are going to be things that endure? I've personally feel looking at the past and being something of a historian, monk that I I think we're pretty poor at predicting the long term effects of something, or at least we're very pretty poor at predicting that certain things that have changed temporarily will become permanent change and vice versa. And I'm wondering, you know, where you see this obviously, it would be it be great if this playing field was permanently flat. But do you imagine that when people start going back to kind of their old lives and putting up the walls and planning their holidays and their Easter parties and this sort of shutters come down? Do you imagine that things will change back? Or do you see this is an opportunity to build a slice of business if you can move quickly enough that it won't matter if things change back, because you will have already changed yourself to a point a change your company's position to a point where you're in a much better spot?

Toby:   16:30
Ultimately, and the short answer is, it depends how long this situation continues to be the way it is. So I my personal opinion, if this subsides in the next 3 to 4 weeks, we definitely have a situation, whereas people will go back to normal really quickly. Sure, there will be a phenomenal consequences for economies, the planet, business, etc. That will be there. But people will still continue to hug each other when they meet or shake hands or, you know, there will not be a permanent or semi-permanent change in society because of this. But if you imagine, I mean, there is no vaccine found, say, this entire year and perhaps not even next year. I mean, let's not forget. AIDS, HIV is also virus. Do you know a vaccine? I don't. Well, what's the guarantee? They're gonna find one of the next 12? There's no guarantee.  Zero guarantee. May happen, may not happen. May never happened. What do we know? What I'm trying to say is the longer the situation persists, the more likely that whatever changes, whether it's a level playing field over there, it is our human society habits, you know, shaking hands, greeting each other the way we meet the way we greet, that these things will be more of a permanent, or at least, when you talk about history, you're talking of obviously a semi permanent change. So oh, so you know it's impossible to say. I do think that first of all, personally, I don't think this over in three or four weeks. I think, you know, until, for example, just the airlines come back to normal. We're probably a year out. And with that in mind, I think that will at least be a memory of this time. And perhaps, one day there will be books, like, you know, where were you when the world stood still or something like that? And this, the questions that people will then be asking themselves, they will say wherever you were when the world stood still. And then these memories come up. And if and these memories can command a certain respect to keep that playing field level. I'm not saying it will, and by the way, I think there will be some terrible consequences more than the virus itself, in society and economy in the coming months. And people will die out of other other causes, not the virus itself, but triggered by the consequences of the virus that you know, that that may change humanity as we know it forever. But if you ask me whether they will go back to normal, I don't think so and if they ever go back to whatever normal was, they will still have a memory, certainly for the next two or three generations.

Jeremy:   19:25
Right? Yeah, I couldn't argue with any of that, I think. So, it gives a kind of last bit of the conversation is you know, what, how are Germans taking this? I mean, it looked pretty good for Germany, but it does seem as if the things are creeping back up a little less than they are in Singapore.

Toby:   19:42
It still too early to say, Jeremy. As a person born in Germany, feeling home internationally, and having lived through this pretty much in the last few weeks in Singapore, which is my base now, in India and in Dubai, now in Germany, the first phase is like, why the heck do we have to be so arrogant and ignorant and cannot learn from Asia? That was the first phase. I could not believe our leaders wasting that time and wasting the opportunity, not putting measures in place fully well, knowing, reading in the news and having experts there, you know, in Asia, knowing what's going on. That's to me, that is inexcusable unacceptable and hopefully some leaders will learn that arrogance has never helped anyone. So that is the first phase. Now the second phase, however, once they did realized, shit is gonna hit the fan. They acted swiftly, concisely, they showed clear leadership in Germany in particular, I can say I think also. And they made a lot of right calls. I'm not there to judge anyone in that position. What is a right or wrong call. But it feels in many levels, it feels right. Look, if I want to, I can still go out for a walk with my wife. Yeah. If I have to buy food for my parents, I can go and do that. I cannot travel. I cannot easily go to other states in Germany. That's fine. But you know, you don't feel that liberty, that the liberties you enjoy are completely taken away from you. I know other countries, that you have no liberty. Here, if I order something online, it arrives. Maybe it's a day. I mean, you know, in Germany. If it's a day or two late, it doesn't matter. But the infrastructures, the logistics, they are working. And I mean, sure again, this is phase two. Why I said the question is a little bit too early is because now, everything depends on phase three. In phase two, they had made sure that the hospital has enough support, you know, that that all the urgent matters have taken care of, but that the important matters are not left out of sight, etcetera. I mean, I don't think we will, if they continue like this, we will. We will do really well. I mean, through this crisis here in Germany. But if they open up too early, then it's impossible to predict, quite frankly speaking.

Jeremy:   22:24
Right. And you think the problem in Germany and elsewhere is gonna become this sort of impatient either on the part of politicians or on the part of people who voted them in and out of office, that this shouldn't go on too long, that they, it's okay doing it for a week. It's probably OK doing it for three weeks, maybe even a month. But when you start stretching much beyond that, then impatient starts to kick in. And that's when the poor decisions might be made do you think?

Toby:   22:53
It's impossible to say. A lot also depends how this virus evolves. Look, if this virus says "I'm gonna attack mostly the elderly." Then you could actually divide society. You could say, look, the younger ones, you go out a bit more again, but let's protect our elderly. Now, when that happens, I can see a big debate in Germany. But also Europe, we cannot divide society like this. We're all the same. Well, yes, we are. But then again, we're not. I mean, I'm in the middle, so I'm caught between these two opinions to be quite honest. So I don't know. But I think you know, how long can you uphold this? You will not be able to uphold the situation for months and months. And yet, and yet, I think it will be impossible to avoid. I think the whole point of doing this is just to reduce the load on the on the hospitals. As long as a country is able to maintain... Because look, I don't think the vaccine will happen in the next one year. That's my personal opinion. I don't think we will have a vaccine within the next one year. That's my personal opinion. If that is not the case and  we slowly go back to normal, 70 to 80% of the people will get infected anyway. So you have only two choices as a government that you can make. You can break it down. I like simple thoughts. You have only two choices. One, delay the inevitable for as long as you can. Number two, whilst you do so, make sure that you protect your people as much as possible. Means, you keep your health care system functioning. You try to keep your economy function. It's you can't win. You can only lose less. I think this is what many people don't realize. If you're leading a government these days, you cannot win. You can only lose less.

Jeremy:   24:46
That's Toby from his hillside German retreat. One thing about talking to these people, it's impossible to predict how they're dealing with COVID-19 and how it's affecting them. Of course, things may change if the Grim Reaper gets closer than you'd like him to be. We'll be catching up with Toby as with all the friends I talked to on this podcast in a week or so's time.  

Jeremy:   25:09
If you have questions for them or for me or comments, you can reach me at Pandemic@cleftstick.com. You've been listening to life in a pandemic produced by myself, Jeremy Wagstaff and Sari Sudarsono. If you're not already doing so, please subscribe so you can catch future episodes and find old ones. And if you like it enough, make your feelings known on iTunes or whatever service you're listening to this on. If you'd like to comment or participate, please drop us a line at Pandemic@cleftstick.com. My name is Jeremy Wagstaff. Goodbye for now, and stay well, wherever you are.